After the National Day, the price of some orders in the graphite market will increase by about 1,000-1,500 yuan/ton from the previous period. At present, there is still a wait-and-see mood in the purchase of graphite electrode downstream steel mills, and market transactions are still weak. However, due to the tight supply of the graphite electrode market and the high cost, graphite electrode companies are actively pushing up the price of graphite electrodes under the reluctance to sell, and the market price changes rapidly. The specific influencing factors are as follows:
1. Under the influence of electricity curtailment, the graphite electrode market supply is expected to decrease
On the one hand, after about 2 months of consumption, the graphite electrode market inventory has decreased, and some graphite electrode companies indicated that the company has basically no inventory;
On the other hand, under the influence of power supply shortages that began in mid-September, various provinces have successively reported power restrictions, and the power restrictions have gradually increased. The graphite electrode market production is limited and the supply is reduced.
Up to now, the power limit in most regions is concentrated at 20%-50%. In Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong, Anhui, and Henan, the impact of power restrictions is more serious, basically around 50%. Among them, some enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Henan are severely restricted. The impact of electricity can reach 70%-80%, and individual companies have shutdowns.
According to statistics of the production of 48 mainstream graphite electrode companies in the country, based on the production of graphite electrodes in September, and calculated according to the proportion of the limited electricity in the graphite electrode market before the "Eleventh" period, it is expected that the monthly output of the graphite electrode market will decrease by 15,400 tons as a whole; After the "Eleventh" period, the graphite electrode market is expected to reduce the overall monthly output by 20,500 tons. It can be seen that the power limit of the graphite electrode market has strengthened after the holiday.
In addition, it is understood that some companies in Hebei, Henan and other regions have received the autumn and winter environmental protection production limit notice, and some graphite electrode companies cannot start construction due to the winter weather. The scope and restrictions of the graphite electrode market will be further increased.
2. The cost of graphite electrode market continues to increase
Upstream raw material prices for graphite electrodes continue to rise
After the National Day, the prices of low-sulfur petroleum coke, coal tar and needle coke, the upstream raw materials of graphite electrodes, have risen across the board. Also, affected by the upward price of coal tar and oil slurry, imported needle coke and domestic needle coke are expected to continue to rise strongly, and the cost of graphite electrodes Continue to pressurize at a high level.
Calculated based on the current raw material prices, theoretically, the comprehensive production cost of graphite electrodes is about 19,000 yuan/ton. Some graphite electrode companies stated that their production has suffered losses.
Under the influence of electricity curtailment, the process cost of the graphite electrode market has increased
On the one hand, under the influence of power curtailment, the graphitization process of graphite electrode companies is more severely restricted, especially in areas with relatively low electricity prices such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi; on the other hand, negative electrode graphitization profits are supported by high profits to seize market resources. , Some graphite electrode graphitization companies switched to negative electrode graphitization. The superposition of two factors has led to the current shortage of graphitization resources in the graphite electrode market and the rise of graphitization prices. At present, the graphitization price of some graphite electrodes has risen to 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and some have reached 5000 yuan/ton.
In addition, companies in some regions have received notices of limited production during the heating season. In addition to graphitization, roasting and other processes are also restricted. It is expected that the cost of some graphite electrode companies that do not have a full set of processes will increase.
3. The market demand for graphite electrodes is stable and improving
Graphite electrode downstream steel mills just need to dominate
Recently, the downstream steel mills of graphite electrodes have paid more attention to the power curtailment of the graphite electrode market, but the steel mills still have limited production and voltage power, and the steel mills are under-operating, and there is still a wait-and-see sentiment on the purchase of graphite electrodes.
Regarding electric furnace steel, some regions have corrected the “one size fits all” electricity curtailment or “movement-type” carbon reduction. At present, some electric furnace steel plants have resumed production or can produce peak shifts. The operating rate of electric furnace steel plants has rebounded slightly, which is good for electric furnace steel plants. Graphite electrode demand.
Graphite electrode market exports are expected to increase
After the National Day, according to some graphite electrode companies, the overall export market is relatively stable, and export inquiries have increased, but the actual transaction has not increased significantly, and the demand for graphite electrodes is relatively stable.
However, it is reported that the freight rate of graphite electrode export ships has fallen recently, and some of the backlog of inventory at the port can be shipped. Due to the sharp increase in sea freight this year, some graphite electrode companies stated that freight costs accounted for about 20% of the export cost of graphite electrodes, which led to some graphite electrode companies switching to domestic sales or shipping to neighboring countries. Therefore, the drop in sea freight prices is good for graphite electrode companies to increase exports.
In addition, the final anti-dumping ruling of the Eurasian Union has been implemented and will formally impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite electrodes from January 1, 2022. Therefore, overseas companies may have certain stocks in the fourth quarter, and graphite electrode exports may increase.
Market outlook: The impact of power curtailment will gradually expand, and the fall and winter environmental protection and production restrictions and the environmental requirements of the Winter Olympics will be superimposed. The graphite electrode market production limit may continue until March 2022. The graphite electrode market supply will continue to shrink as expected, and the graphite electrode price will continue. Raise expectations.
Post time: Oct-15-2021